In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s terrible tragedy
in Connecticut, there have been the predictable calls to
enact new gun control legislation. The usual
proponents of additional restrictions on guns have
filled the airwaves with calls for immediate legislative action. Sen.
Diane Feinstein has promised to introduce a new “assault
weapons” ban on the first day of the new Congress next year. But,
there are three very big reasons to believe that, for all the
rhetoric, nothing will come of this new push for gun control.
1. Biden Gun Violence Task Force
This afternoon, President Obama convened a press conference announcing the formation
of a blue-ribbon task force, chaired by VP Biden, to examine and recommend changes in
our country’s gun laws. Most pundits are greeting this news as a sign that Obama is
serious about pushing for additional gun control legislation. The formation of the task
force, however, means almost the opposite.
In Washington, blue-ribbon task forces are reserved for issues where you want the
appearance of taking action, without having to actually do anything. There’s a reason
we’ve had so many task forces on government spending and the debt. Politicians want to
look like they are doing something on an issue. By the time the task force completes its
work, the national conversation will have moved on to a new issue.
Task forces are also effective ways to slow down a push for legislation. Legislators can
defer taking action while the task force completes its “review” of the issue. Its a very
convenient way to kick an issue down the road until after the immediate emotions have
cooled.
The Democrats have dodged two election threats to their majority in the Senate. They
clung to their majority in 2010 and even managed to get back two seats last month. But,
the GOP gets a third bite at the apple in 2014, when the Democrats will be defending 20
seats against the GOP’s 13. In the 13th, Maine, the GOP would be strongly favored if
Susan Collins opts, as expected, to run for reelection. The Democrats, by contrast face a
dangerous array of states.
Among the states Democrats will be defending are Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, North
Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and
South Dakota. All of these states have very strong blocks of pro-gun voters. In Michigan,
the issue could come into play if Sen. Carl Levin decides to retire.
Elections in 2014 are already expected to be a difficult cycle for Democrats. In the
modern political era, virtually every party holding the White House has suffered losses in
the middle of its second term. The lone exception was 1998, when Bill Clinton was in the
middle of his second term. The GOP retained its majority in Congress, but lost a handful
of seats. There were very particular circumstances surrounding that loss which aren’t
likely to be repeated.
Regardless of how the fiscal cliff negotiations end, the economy will remain weak through
2014. There is even a chance the economy slips back into recession. It is unlikely Harry
Reid wants to add to the Democrats’ challenge by making gun control an issue in the
midterm. Midterm’s have lower turnout than presidential elections, allowing an
energized base of voters, like gun rights supporters, to have an out-sized impact on the
results.
3. Obama’s Press Conference Today
Obama announced his gun task force at a press conference this afternoon. The tragedy in
Connecticut has dominated the news cycle for the past six days. There have been
innumerable stories on the shooting and the prospects for new gun control legislation.
Yet, the very first question out of the White House press corps was on…the fiscal cliff. In
fact, except for two quick questions at the end, every question at the presser was on the
fiscal cliff.
This suggests the the press corps doesn’t really put a lot of stock into all the current noise
about gun control. Its a jaded, cynical group of reporters and they have seen this dance
often. If they really thought recent developments had put new momentum behind gun
control legislation, they would have asked about it. That would be a big political story.
The chief challenge for gun control advocates is that it isn’t at all clear that their
proposals would have prevented to shooting at Sandy Hook. The current proposals being
discussed have been on gun control wish-lists for decades and don’t have any specific
application to the events in Newtown.
Obama’s press conference today marked the zenith of the new push for gun control. Its
momentum will fade as the raw emotions around the shooting recede. With it, the
appetite for new gun control laws will fall away. Obama’s task force is recognition of
that.
Article originally posted by Mike Flynn, to view the original article click here
